F-0009 · first recorded 2026-08-20
Visible forced flow on Hyperliquid BTC is small relative to visible book depth
PRELIMINARY
| Observation | $63.6M total forced selling in the visible map against $222.5M of bids within 2.71% of mid; a $10.6M trigger moved price 0.069% |
|---|---|
| Sample | one snapshot pair, 2026-08-20, fast-tier map at 24.2% coverage |
| Method | cascade sweep of the observed ladder against the observed book, evaporation not applied |
| What is not established | ONE observation, low coverage, static book, and a 51-minute clock gap (F-0008) |
| Who else publishes this | no product publishes forced flow as a ratio to available depth |
| Evidence | market/cascade_live.py |
If it survives better coverage, a fresh map and measured evaporation, it points at an uncomfortable conclusion for the whole product line: the cascades everyone draws heatmaps of may be routinely absorbed.
That would still be a finding worth publishing — “most liquidation clusters are smaller than the book that meets them” is contrarian and checkable — but it is not the product anyone imagines buying.
Do not lean on this. One snapshot, 24% coverage, static book, stale map. It is recorded so it cannot later be rediscovered and presented as new.