F-0006 · first recorded 2026-08-20
Binance order-book behaviour under stress transfers to Hyperliquid
ASSUMED
| Observation | none — nothing has been measured on Hyperliquid |
|---|---|
| Sample | none |
| Method | n/a |
| What is not established | untested and load-bearing; hl2 began recording Hyperliquid l2Book at nSigFigs=3 on 2026-08-20 to settle it |
| Who else publishes this | n/a |
| Evidence | research/ASSUMPTION-binance-physics-may-not-transfer.md |
The most dangerous category in the registry. The cascade model calibrates depth evaporation on three years of Binance data and applies it to Hyperliquid, which has HLP backstopping liquidations, a different maker population, an order of magnitude less open interest, and block-paced matching.
If Hyperliquid’s book holds up better, our cascade depths are too pessimistic. If worse, too optimistic — the dangerous direction for anyone acting on a forecast.
No Hyperliquid cascade figure may be published without this caveat on its face until F-0006 moves to MEASURED or REFUTED.