F-0004 · first recorded 2026-08-19 · updated 2026-08-24
The wallet universe is exhausted; more wallets of the same kind would add nothing
REFUTED
| Observation | claimed 20.24% observed coverage was near the ceiling; a later stratified estimate put the wider discovered universe at 53.3% [40.9%, 70.8%] |
|---|---|
| Sample | the claim rested on a universe frozen after FOUR HOURS of recording, documented as 21 days |
| Method | n/a — the error was a premise never measured, not a calculation |
| What is not established | refuted because newly discovered wallets added substantial measured notional; 53.3% remains an estimate, not a directly observed scan |
| Who else publishes this | n/a |
| Evidence | research/DEFECT-universe-was-four-hours-not-21-days.md, research/coverage-measured-53-percent.md |
Kept because the failure is more instructive than the correction.
Two errors compounded. The universe was four hours old, not the 21 days asserted across three
documents — “21 days” was hl1’s declared duration misread as elapsed time. And the supporting
statistic, “the top 300 of 5,395 wallets hold 97.8% of notional”, was true but measured
concentration within the sample and was used to claim something about wallets the sample had
never seen.
A statistic computed inside a sample says nothing about what the sample never saw.