F-0003 · first recorded 2026-08-20 · updated 2026-08-24
A stratified estimate puts the discovered wallet universe at 53.3% of Hyperliquid BTC open interest, not 20%
MEASURED supersedes F-0004
| Observation | estimated 53.3% full-universe coverage, 95% CI [40.9%, 70.8%]; this is not the coverage observed in a live scan |
|---|---|
| Sample | 31,349-wallet universe; stratified estimate with a random sample of 1,200 of the 25,954 newly discovered wallets |
| Method | known stratum from the last deep scan plus mean-per-wallet extrapolation over the new stratum; bootstrapped interval |
| What is not established | still a lower bound — the universe is activity-derived and the recording keeps discovering wallets |
| Who else publishes this | no provider publishes a coverage figure for position data |
| Evidence | research/coverage-measured-53-percent.md |
Supersedes the claim that the universe was exhausted. The 25,954 wallets discovered after the original freeze hold roughly $681M against the original universe’s $596M — more than the entire original universe — and hold BTC at a higher rate, 35.6% against 31%.