F-0001 · first recorded 2026-08-20
Free collateral cannot be derived from position and margin data; naive arithmetic misclassifies one wallet in five
MEASURED
| Observation | withdrawable == accountValue - totalMarginUsed for 19% of wallets; 20% misclassified as able to defend |
|---|---|
| Sample | 74 Hyperliquid wallets holding open BTC positions, queried live 2026-08-20 |
| Method | compare venue-reported `withdrawable` against marginSummary arithmetic on the same response |
| What is not established | single venue, single moment, wallets already known to hold positions; would be strengthened by repetition across days and by a second venue |
| Who else publishes this | no provider checked (HyperTracker, Coinglass, 0xArchive, Tardis, QuickNode, Dwellir, PurrData) exposes this field |
| Evidence | research/withdrawable-is-not-derivable.md |
The venue applies constraints beyond position margin — plausibly margin reserved against open orders, isolated allocation, or restrictions on unrealised PnL. Whatever the cause, the number is computed by the exchange and is not a function of the fields a reconstruction would have.
What it does not mean. It does not establish that defensibility predicts anything. It establishes only that the input cannot be obtained any other way.
What would refute it. Finding a formula over publicly available fields that reproduces
withdrawable to within a tolerance across a larger sample.